S&P 500 Sector Dislocation Screener

Data as of 2026-09 · generated 2026-09-28 18:46

Summary · September 2026

We need to be more careful with Technology from here. It is about 38% of the S&P 500, the 99th percentile of its own history, and it has beaten the index by 30% over three years. That much concentration leaves little room for disappointment on valuation.

The other end of the market is dislocated and underperforming. Consumer Discretionary, Materials, Consumer Staples, Utilities and Health Care have lagged the S&P 500 by 22–30% over three years (the 1st–5th percentile of their own histories), and as a group they sit near their lowest index weights (12th percentile).

Similar setups were in 2000 and 2021: the two earlier times Tech was this overweight while these sectors were this out of favour. What the same group of sectors did next:

  • February 2000: over the next 12 months the group returned +15.8% vs -8.9% for the S&P 500 (+24.6 pp); over 24 months +16.3% vs -17.2% (+33.6 pp). Technology returned -50% in that first year.
  • November 2021: over the next 12 months the group returned +1.0% vs -9.2% for the S&P 500 (+10.2 pp); by 24 months the lead had faded (-0.6% vs +3.3%, -3.9 pp). Technology returned -19% in that first year.

Caveat: this setup is not new. It first appeared in October 2023, and since then the group has returned +41% vs +90% for the S&P 500 (-49 pp). A dislocation can last much longer than expected, and two past episodes are a very small sample.

Therefore, it will be interesting to see whether we can find an opportunity within these dislocated sectors. The Stock Screener tab ranks their largest holdings on quality and valuation.

Group = the sectors whose 3-year performance vs. the S&P 500 is at or below their 10th percentile today, equal-weighted, total return. Rule for a similar setup: Technology weight at or above its 90th percentile AND the lagging group at an extreme on at least one lens (average weight percentile <= 15, or its average 3-year relative performance vs SPY in the bottom decile of its history). Episodes start at the first qualifying month; gaps under 12 months are merged. The weight percentile for early 2000 rests on only ~14 months of ETF history at the time.

Current sector weight vs. its own history

Each bar shows how far the sector's estimated current weight in the S&P 500 sits from the 50th percentile of its own history (the dashed centerline). Red = trading at a historically high weight (overweight); blue = historically low (underweight). Click the chart to enlarge.

Overweight extreme (≥90th pctl) Mid-range Underweight extreme (≤10th pctl)
Technology (XLK)38.0% 99th pctlConsumer Discretionary (XLY)9.0% 45th pctlCommunication Services (XLC)9.6% 16th pctlEnergy (XLE)3.5% 15th pctlIndustrials (XLI)8.3% 13th pctlHealth Care (XLV)9.3% 11th pctlMaterials (XLB)1.8% 3rd pctlFinancials (XLF)12.3% 3rd pctlReal Estate (XLRE)1.8% 1st pctlConsumer Staples (XLP)4.5% 1st pctlUtilities (XLU)2.0% 1st pctl

Sector weight history (est.)

Monthly estimated weight, full available history per sector. Dot = current reading. Click any chart to enlarge.

Technology (XLK)
1998-122026-09
Financials (XLF)
1998-122026-09
Communication Services (XLC)
2018-062026-09
Health Care (XLV)
1998-122026-09
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
1998-122026-09
Industrials (XLI)
1998-122026-09
Consumer Staples (XLP)
1998-122026-09
Energy (XLE)
1998-122026-09
Utilities (XLU)
1998-122026-09
Materials (XLB)
1998-122026-09
Real Estate (XLRE)
2015-102026-09

What happened after similar dislocations, historically

For each sector at an extreme today: every past episode where it reached a comparably extreme weight percentile (top or bottom decile of its own history to that point). Each cell shows the average actual return of the sector, the average actual return of the S&P 500 (SPY) over the same months, and the gap between them in percentage points (pp). Open "Show each episode" for the individual episodes. Price returns, not including dividends.

SectorNext 6mNext 12mNext 24mNext 36m
TechnologyXLK · Overweight extreme7 past episodes
Sector+7.2%
S&P 500+3.6%
Outperformed by3.6 pp
beat the S&P in 4 of 7
Sector+15.0%
S&P 500+6.5%
Outperformed by8.4 pp
beat the S&P in 4 of 7
Sector+14.1%
S&P 500+14.1%
Matched, gap0.0 pp
beat the S&P in 4 of 7
Sector+7.7%
S&P 500+9.1%
Underperformed by1.4 pp
beat the S&P in 3 of 6
Show each episode (real returns)
EpisodeNext 6mNext 12mNext 24mNext 36m
SectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500Gap
1998-12weight ≈20.7% · 100th pctl+24.1%+11.1%+13.0 pp+65.1%+19.1%+46.0 pp-4.0%+6.4%-10.4 pp-26.4%-7.3%-19.1 pp
1999-07weight ≈23.6% · 100th pctl+26.4%+5.1%+21.2 pp+28.2%+7.7%+20.5 pp-34.5%-8.6%-25.9 pp-64.2%-31.3%-32.9 pp
1999-11weight ≈26.2% · 100th pctl+5.6%+2.5%+3.1 pp-25.5%-5.0%-20.5 pp-47.4%-18.1%-29.3 pp-63.4%-32.5%-30.8 pp
2019-04weight ≈20.9% · 91st pctl+6.3%+3.2%+3.1 pp+16.1%-1.2%+17.3 pp+77.5%+41.9%+35.6 pp+79.7%+40.1%+39.5 pp
2021-11weight ≈28.9% · 98th pctl-16.8%-9.4%-7.4 pp-19.4%-10.5%-8.9 pp+9.7%+0.2%+9.6 pp+38.5%+32.3%+6.3 pp
2022-07weight ≈27.4% · 94th pctl-5.7%-1.3%-4.4 pp+23.7%+11.1%+12.6 pp+51.7%+33.7%+18.0 pp+82.2%+53.4%+28.8 pp
2024-01weight ≈32.0% · 100th pctl+10.7%+14.1%-3.4 pp+16.8%+24.6%-7.9 pp+45.6%+43.3%+2.3 pp–––
FinancialsXLF · Underweight extreme15 past episodes
Sector+13.3%
S&P 500+5.7%
Outperformed by7.7 pp
beat the S&P in 13 of 14
Sector+21.5%
S&P 500+7.8%
Outperformed by13.7 pp
beat the S&P in 11 of 14
Sector+32.3%
S&P 500+19.8%
Outperformed by12.5 pp
beat the S&P in 9 of 14
Sector+36.6%
S&P 500+24.5%
Outperformed by12.1 pp
beat the S&P in 11 of 13
Show each episode (real returns)
EpisodeNext 6mNext 12mNext 24mNext 36m
SectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500Gap
1999-09weight ≈22.8% · 10th pctl+9.7%+16.8%-7.1 pp+31.1%+11.6%+19.5 pp+11.6%-18.9%+30.4 pp-6.6%-36.5%+29.9 pp
1999-12weight ≈21.5% · 8th pctl-0.1%-1.1%+1.0 pp+24.1%-10.7%+34.8 pp+10.7%-22.2%+32.8 pp-7.4%-39.9%+32.5 pp
2000-02weight ≈19.9% · 7th pctl+38.2%+10.9%+27.4 pp+33.3%-9.8%+43.1 pp+24.1%-19.1%+43.2 pp+2.2%-38.2%+40.4 pp
2011-11weight ≈13.6% · 1st pctl+9.4%+5.2%+4.2 pp+23.0%+13.7%+9.3 pp+67.7%+44.8%+22.9 pp+90.5%+65.8%+24.7 pp
2012-11weight ≈14.7% · 10th pctl+25.9%+15.0%+10.9 pp+36.3%+27.3%+9.0 pp+54.8%+45.8%+9.1 pp+55.8%+46.8%+9.0 pp
2016-02weight ≈14.5% · 6th pctl+16.4%+12.3%+4.2 pp+43.2%+22.2%+21.1 pp+68.5%+40.3%+28.2 pp+54.8%+44.0%+10.8 pp
2016-07weight ≈14.5% · 6th pctl+21.3%+4.8%+16.5 pp+30.6%+13.7%+16.9 pp+45.5%+29.6%+15.9 pp+47.0%+37.0%+10.1 pp
2016-09weight ≈14.6% · 8th pctl+22.9%+9.0%+14.0 pp+34.0%+16.2%+17.8 pp+42.9%+34.4%+8.5 pp+45.1%+37.2%+7.9 pp
2019-03weight ≈14.9% · 9th pctl+8.9%+5.1%+3.8 pp-19.0%-8.8%-10.3 pp+32.4%+40.3%-7.9 pp+49.0%+59.9%-10.8 pp
2020-07weight ≈12.0% · <1st pctl+20.5%+13.3%+7.1 pp+52.0%+34.3%+17.7 pp+40.3%+26.2%+14.1 pp+47.0%+40.2%+6.8 pp
2021-07weight ≈13.6% · 5th pctl+7.0%+2.6%+4.4 pp-7.7%-6.0%-1.6 pp-3.3%+4.4%-7.7 pp+19.8%+25.6%-5.8 pp
2021-12weight ≈13.4% · 4th pctl-19.5%-20.6%+1.1 pp-12.4%-19.5%+7.1 pp-3.7%+0.1%-3.8 pp+23.8%+23.4%+0.4 pp
2022-07weight ≈13.4% · 4th pctl+8.4%-1.3%+9.8 pp+4.8%+11.1%-6.3 pp+29.8%+33.7%-3.9 pp+55.4%+53.4%+1.9 pp
2024-06weight ≈12.3% · 2nd pctl+17.6%+7.7%+9.9 pp+27.4%+13.5%+13.9 pp+30.4%+37.2%-6.8 pp–––
2026-05weight ≈11.1% · <1st pctl––––––––––––
Consumer StaplesXLP · Underweight extreme6 past episodes
Sector+8.6%
S&P 500+0.5%
Outperformed by8.0 pp
beat the S&P in 4 of 5
Sector+12.9%
S&P 500-7.2%
Outperformed by20.1 pp
beat the S&P in 4 of 5
Sector+11.6%
S&P 500-12.3%
Outperformed by23.9 pp
beat the S&P in 5 of 5
Sector+3.2%
S&P 500-8.2%
Outperformed by11.5 pp
beat the S&P in 3 of 5
Show each episode (real returns)
EpisodeNext 6mNext 12mNext 24mNext 36m
SectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500Gap
1999-09weight ≈7.2% · 10th pctl-6.7%+16.8%-23.5 pp+9.8%+11.6%-1.7 pp+10.2%-18.9%+29.0 pp-13.0%-36.5%+23.5 pp
1999-12weight ≈6.4% · 8th pctl+9.6%-1.1%+10.7 pp+24.0%-10.7%+34.7 pp+10.3%-22.2%+32.5 pp-13.4%-39.9%+26.5 pp
2000-03weight ≈5.7% · 6th pctl+17.8%-4.5%+22.2 pp+16.5%-22.4%+38.9 pp+23.0%-23.9%+46.9 pp-12.5%-43.6%+31.2 pp
2018-05weight ≈7.4% · 9th pctl+13.3%+1.7%+11.6 pp+12.0%+1.6%+10.4 pp+19.3%+12.3%+6.9 pp+42.6%+55.0%-12.4 pp
2021-10weight ≈6.3% · 1st pctl+9.0%-10.3%+19.3 pp+2.1%-15.9%+18.0 pp-4.8%-8.9%+4.2 pp+12.4%+23.8%-11.4 pp
2026-05weight ≈4.5% · <1st pctl––––––––––––
UtilitiesXLU · Underweight extreme14 past episodes
Sector+6.6%
S&P 500+2.3%
Outperformed by4.4 pp
beat the S&P in 8 of 13
Sector+9.4%
S&P 500+3.1%
Outperformed by6.3 pp
beat the S&P in 8 of 13
Sector+12.8%
S&P 500+20.8%
Underperformed by8.0 pp
beat the S&P in 6 of 13
Sector+15.4%
S&P 500+28.2%
Underperformed by12.9 pp
beat the S&P in 3 of 13
Show each episode (real returns)
EpisodeNext 6mNext 12mNext 24mNext 36m
SectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500Gap
1999-12weight ≈3.4% · 8th pctl-3.2%-1.1%-2.1 pp+17.9%-10.7%+28.6 pp-0.4%-22.2%+21.8 pp-31.9%-39.9%+8.0 pp
2000-02weight ≈3.2% · 7th pctl+18.4%+10.8%+7.6 pp+31.7%-9.8%+41.5 pp+11.1%-19.1%+30.2 pp-27.1%-38.2%+11.1 pp
2013-12weight ≈3.7% · 6th pctl+16.6%+6.0%+10.6 pp+24.4%+11.3%+13.1 pp+14.0%+10.4%+3.6 pp+27.9%+21.0%+6.9 pp
2015-06weight ≈3.6% · 6th pctl+4.4%-1.0%+5.3 pp+26.6%+1.8%+24.8 pp+25.3%+17.5%+7.9 pp+25.3%+31.8%-6.5 pp
2015-11weight ≈3.7% · 6th pctl+14.8%+0.5%+14.2 pp+9.2%+5.6%+3.6 pp+32.2%+27.0%+5.2 pp+29.8%+32.1%-2.3 pp
2018-01weight ≈3.3% · 1st pctl+3.4%-0.2%+3.6 pp+7.3%-4.2%+11.5 pp+35.1%+14.1%+21.0 pp+21.8%+31.3%-9.5 pp
2019-01weight ≈3.6% · 10th pctl+8.8%+10.2%-1.4 pp+26.0%+19.2%+6.8 pp+13.5%+37.1%-23.6 pp+26.5%+66.7%-40.2 pp
2019-04weight ≈3.6% · 9th pctl+9.4%+3.2%+6.3 pp-2.5%-1.2%-1.3 pp+13.6%+41.9%-28.3 pp+21.4%+40.1%-18.7 pp
2019-07weight ≈3.6% · 9th pctl+15.8%+8.2%+7.7 pp+2.1%+9.8%-7.6 pp+10.8%+47.4%-36.6 pp+24.2%+38.5%-14.3 pp
2019-11weight ≈3.6% · 10th pctl-5.3%-3.2%-2.1 pp-0.3%+15.2%-15.5 pp+4.3%+44.9%-40.6 pp+13.3%+29.7%-16.4 pp
2021-10weight ≈2.6% · <1st pctl+6.5%-10.3%+16.8 pp-0.2%-15.9%+15.7 pp-10.8%-8.9%-1.8 pp+19.4%+23.8%-4.4 pp
2022-07weight ≈3.2% · 8th pctl-6.6%-1.3%-5.2 pp-9.3%+11.1%-20.4 pp-1.6%+33.7%-35.3 pp+15.8%+53.4%-37.6 pp
2022-10weight ≈3.1% · 6th pctl+3.3%+7.7%-4.4 pp-10.6%+8.3%-18.9 pp+19.7%+47.2%-27.6 pp+33.4%+76.6%-43.2 pp
2026-05weight ≈2.1% · <1st pctl––––––––––––
MaterialsXLB · Underweight extreme5 past episodes
Sector+15.6%
S&P 500+7.3%
Outperformed by8.2 pp
beat the S&P in 4 of 5
Sector+25.8%
S&P 500+10.7%
Outperformed by15.1 pp
beat the S&P in 3 of 4
Sector+29.5%
S&P 500+13.5%
Outperformed by16.0 pp
beat the S&P in 3 of 4
Sector+30.8%
S&P 500+17.8%
Outperformed by12.9 pp
beat the S&P in 3 of 4
Show each episode (real returns)
EpisodeNext 6mNext 12mNext 24mNext 36m
SectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500Gap
2000-02weight ≈2.0% · 7th pctl-3.4%+10.8%-14.3 pp+0.7%-9.8%+10.5 pp+10.0%-19.1%+29.1 pp-12.6%-38.2%+25.7 pp
2000-09weight ≈1.7% · 5th pctl+9.9%-18.8%+28.6 pp+5.7%-27.3%+32.9 pp-2.6%-43.0%+40.4 pp+20.1%-30.4%+50.5 pp
2020-03weight ≈2.3% · 8th pctl+41.3%+29.9%+11.4 pp+75.0%+53.8%+21.2 pp+95.7%+75.2%+20.5 pp+79.1%+58.8%+20.2 pp
2023-05weight ≈2.4% · 9th pctl+9.8%+9.2%+0.6 pp+22.0%+26.2%-4.2 pp+15.1%+41.0%-26.0 pp+36.4%+81.0%-44.7 pp
2025-10weight ≈1.7% · <1st pctl+20.2%+5.4%+14.8 pp–––––––––
Real EstateXLRE · Underweight extreme8 past episodes
Sector+8.7%
S&P 500+8.6%
Outperformed by0.1 pp
beat the S&P in 3 of 7
Sector+13.5%
S&P 500+14.6%
Underperformed by1.0 pp
beat the S&P in 3 of 7
Sector+12.2%
S&P 500+15.0%
Underperformed by2.8 pp
beat the S&P in 2 of 7
Sector+20.9%
S&P 500+36.7%
Underperformed by15.8 pp
beat the S&P in 0 of 7
Show each episode (real returns)
EpisodeNext 6mNext 12mNext 24mNext 36m
SectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500Gap
2016-11weight ≈4.3% · 7th pctl+6.2%+9.6%-3.4 pp+11.5%+20.2%-8.8 pp+12.8%+25.1%-12.3 pp+28.8%+42.6%-13.8 pp
2017-01weight ≈4.2% · 6th pctl+6.1%+8.4%-2.3 pp+5.2%+23.9%-18.7 pp+11.8%+18.6%-6.9 pp+27.7%+41.4%-13.7 pp
2017-05weight ≈4.1% · 5th pctl+5.0%+9.8%-4.8 pp-0.9%+12.2%-13.1 pp+14.5%+14.0%+0.5 pp+8.8%+26.0%-17.3 pp
2017-07weight ≈4.1% · 9th pctl-0.9%+14.2%-15.1 pp+1.4%+14.0%-12.6 pp+14.8%+20.5%-5.7 pp+11.3%+32.3%-21.1 pp
2018-02weight ≈3.5% · 3rd pctl+12.4%+6.9%+5.5 pp+15.3%+2.6%+12.7 pp+22.2%+9.1%+13.1 pp+24.0%+40.0%-16.0 pp
2018-09weight ≈3.5% · 6th pctl+11.1%-2.8%+13.9 pp+20.6%+2.1%+18.6 pp+8.2%+15.2%-7.0 pp+36.3%+47.6%-11.3 pp
2020-12weight ≈3.1% · 2nd pctl+21.2%+14.5%+6.8 pp+41.7%+27.0%+14.7 pp+1.0%+2.3%-1.3 pp+9.6%+27.1%-17.6 pp
2026-08weight ≈1.8% · 1st pctl––––––––––––

All sectors

"Historical mean" and "std dev" are computed over each sector's full available history of the weight-proxy series (not point-in-time). The σ column is how many standard deviations the current estimated weight sits from that historical mean — a second, more traditional way to size the dislocation alongside the percentile.

SectorTickerEst. weightHistorical meanStd devZ-scorePercentileRegimeMonths of history
TechnologyXLK38.0%19.7%6.66+2.75σ99thOverweight extreme334
FinancialsXLF12.3%20.3%7.83-1.02σ3rdUnderweight extreme334
Communication ServicesXLC9.6%10.8%1.00-1.18σ16thMid-range100
Health CareXLV9.3%11.6%1.70-1.36σ11thMid-range334
Consumer DiscretionaryXLY9.0%9.5%2.00-0.27σ45thMid-range334
IndustrialsXLI8.3%9.1%0.77-1.05σ13thMid-range334
Consumer StaplesXLP4.5%8.2%1.50-2.53σ1stUnderweight extreme334
EnergyXLE3.5%6.6%3.03-1.04σ15thMid-range334
UtilitiesXLU2.0%3.9%0.87-2.20σ1stUnderweight extreme334
MaterialsXLB1.8%2.9%0.59-1.87σ3rdUnderweight extreme334
Real EstateXLRE1.8%3.3%0.87-1.72σ1stUnderweight extreme132

Sector Underperformance

Total return incl. dividends · monthly · data through 2026-09

A second lens on the same question. The weights section above asks how big a sector has become; this one asks how badly it has performed relative to the S&P 500, and how rare that is for that sector. (A percentile of the raw sector/SPY price ratio would just repeat the weights section, because weight moves with relative price, so this uses two measures that don't.)

  • Relative 3y: how a dollar in the sector did against a dollar in SPY over the last 36 months (total return). −30% means the sector dollar ended worth 30% less than the SPY dollar. Ranked against every rolling 3-year window in the sector's history since 1999: 0th = worst stretch ever, 100th = best.
  • Relative drawdown: how far the sector-vs-SPY line sits below its own all-time peak, and the percentile of that depth vs. history. This shows how deep the hole is; Relative 3y shows how bad the recent stretch was.

Trailing 3-year performance vs. SPY, ranked against own history

Outperformance extreme (≥90th pctl) Mid-range Underperformance extreme (≤10th pctl)
Technology (XLK)+30.3% vs SPY 91st pctlCommunication Services * (XLC)-5.5% vs SPY 55th pctlFinancials (XLF)-7.8% vs SPY 40th pctlEnergy (XLE)-18.8% vs SPY 33rd pctlReal Estate * (XLRE)-27.7% vs SPY 17th pctlIndustrials (XLI)-6.6% vs SPY 14th pctlHealth Care (XLV)-24.9% vs SPY 5th pctlUtilities (XLU)-21.6% vs SPY 4th pctlConsumer Staples (XLP)-30.4% vs SPY 3rd pctlMaterials (XLB)-28.3% vs SPY 2nd pctlConsumer Discretionary (XLY)-25.1% vs SPY 1st pctl

* short history (Real Estate since 2015, Communication Services since 2018): fewer than 15 years of rolling windows, so treat those percentiles as low-confidence.

All sectors: performance and drawdown

SectorTicker3y total returnSPY 3yRelative 3yPctl (3y)Hist. median 3yWorst 3y everRel. drawdownPctl (DD)Flagged by
TechnologyXLK+142.5%+86.2%+30.3%91st+8.9%-59.6%2003-03-0.5%peak 2026-0697thBoth
FinancialsXLF+71.7%+86.2%-7.8%40th-3.0%-58.3%2009-02-65.5%peak 2006-121stWeight
Communication Services short historyXLC+76.0%+86.2%-5.5%55th-8.1%-26.9%2022-10-24.6%peak 2021-0815th—
Health CareXLV+39.9%+86.2%-24.9%5th-0.5%-38.0%2025-10-38.5%peak 2015-074thPerformance
Consumer DiscretionaryXLY+39.4%+86.2%-25.1%1st+4.3%-25.2%2007-12-38.0%peak 2021-11<1stPerformance
IndustrialsXLI+73.9%+86.2%-6.6%14th+1.9%-20.6%2020-06-21.4%peak 2017-121st—
Consumer StaplesXLP+29.7%+86.2%-30.4%3rd-4.8%-39.1%2025-12-54.5%peak 2016-06<1stBoth
EnergyXLE+51.1%+86.2%-18.8%33rd+0.2%-63.9%2020-09-70.2%peak 2008-0617th—
UtilitiesXLU+46.0%+86.2%-21.6%4th-4.5%-28.4%2025-12-60.5%peak 2009-01<1stBoth
MaterialsXLB+33.5%+86.2%-28.3%2nd-4.7%-34.3%2025-11-57.8%peak 2008-061stBoth
Real Estate short historyXLRE+34.7%+86.2%-27.7%17th-16.9%-36.1%2026-01-59.4%peak 2016-061stWeight

Trailing 3-year relative performance over time

Rolling 36-month total return minus SPY (relative), monthly. The flat line is 0% (matched SPY). Hover to see the point-in-time percentile at each date. Click to enlarge.

Technology (XLK)
now +30.3% · 91st pctl
2001-122026-09
Financials (XLF)
now -7.8% · 40th pctl
2001-122026-09
Communication Services (XLC)
now -5.5% · 55th pctl
2021-062026-09
Health Care (XLV)
now -24.9% · 5th pctl
2001-122026-09
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
now -25.1% · 1st pctl
2001-122026-09
Industrials (XLI)
now -6.6% · 14th pctl
2001-122026-09
Consumer Staples (XLP)
now -30.4% · 3rd pctl
2001-122026-09
Energy (XLE)
now -18.8% · 33rd pctl
2001-122026-09
Utilities (XLU)
now -21.6% · 4th pctl
2001-122026-09
Materials (XLB)
now -28.3% · 2nd pctl
2001-122026-09
Real Estate (XLRE)
now -27.7% · 17th pctl
2018-102026-09

What happened after similar underperformance, historically

For each flagged sector: every past episode where its trailing 3-year relative performance fell to the bottom decile of its own history as known at the time (point-in-time percentile, 5-year burn-in, flickers within 12 months merged into one episode). Each cell shows, over the next 12, 24 and 36 months, the average actual total return of the sector, the average actual total return of the S&P 500 (SPY) over the same months, and the gap between the two in percentage points (pp), plus how many episodes beat the S&P. Open "Show each episode" for each episode's real numbers. For Technology the same is done for top-decile (≥90th) outperformance. Samples are very small (1–5 episodes), so treat these as anecdotes, not odds.

SectorNext 12mNext 24mNext 36m
TechnologyXLK · Outperformance extreme (3y ≥90th pctl)2 past episodes
Sector-2.9%
S&P 500+2.3%
Underperformed by5.2 pp
beat the S&P in 0 of 2
Sector+23.3%
S&P 500+19.7%
Outperformed by3.6 pp
beat the S&P in 1 of 2
Sector+48.6%
S&P 500+43.1%
Outperformed by5.5 pp
beat the S&P in 2 of 2
Show each episode (real returns)
EpisodeNext 12mNext 24mNext 36m
SectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500Gap
2009-073y vs SPY then +25%+12.8%+13.7%-0.9 pp+34.8%+36.1%-1.3 pp+55.2%+48.0%+7.2 pp
2021-113y vs SPY then +48%-18.7%-9.2%-9.5 pp+11.8%+3.3%+8.4 pp+42.1%+38.2%+3.9 pp
FinancialsXLF · Underperformance (drawdown ≤10th pctl)1 past episode
Sector+97.4%
S&P 500+53.3%
Outperformed by44.2 pp
beat the S&P in 1 of 1
Sector+128.9%
S&P 500+87.9%
Outperformed by41.1 pp
beat the S&P in 1 of 1
Sector+103.9%
S&P 500+97.4%
Outperformed by6.5 pp
beat the S&P in 1 of 1
Show each episode (real returns)
EpisodeNext 12mNext 24mNext 36m
SectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500Gap
2009-023y vs SPY then -58%+97.4%+53.3%+44.2 pp+128.9%+87.9%+41.1 pp+103.9%+97.4%+6.5 pp
Health CareXLV · Underperformance (3y ≤10th pctl, drawdown ≤10th pctl)2 past episodes
Sector+10.8%
S&P 500+0.5%
Outperformed by10.3 pp
beat the S&P in 2 of 2
Sector+14.6%
S&P 500+10.8%
Outperformed by3.9 pp
beat the S&P in 2 of 2
Sector+39.3%
S&P 500+52.4%
Underperformed by13.1 pp
beat the S&P in 0 of 2
Show each episode (real returns)
EpisodeNext 12mNext 24mNext 36m
SectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500Gap
2018-063y vs SPY then -16%+12.8%+10.1%+2.7 pp+24.8%+18.2%+6.6 pp+59.5%+66.6%-7.0 pp
2021-113y vs SPY then -18%+8.8%-9.2%+18.0 pp+4.4%+3.3%+1.1 pp+19.1%+38.2%-19.1 pp
Consumer DiscretionaryXLY · Underperformance (3y ≤10th pctl, drawdown ≤10th pctl)2 past episodes
Sector-5.0%
S&P 500-7.7%
Outperformed by2.7 pp
beat the S&P in 2 of 2
Sector-5.8%
S&P 500-20.1%
Outperformed by14.4 pp
beat the S&P in 1 of 1
Sector+20.1%
S&P 500-8.1%
Outperformed by28.2 pp
beat the S&P in 1 of 1
Show each episode (real returns)
EpisodeNext 12mNext 24mNext 36m
SectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500Gap
2007-123y vs SPY then -25%-33.0%-36.8%+3.8 pp-5.8%-20.1%+14.4 pp+20.1%-8.1%+28.2 pp
2024-103y vs SPY then -22%+22.9%+21.4%+1.5 pp––––––
IndustrialsXLI · Underperformance (drawdown ≤10th pctl)5 past episodes
Sector+39.8%
S&P 500+29.8%
Outperformed by10.0 pp
beat the S&P in 4 of 5
Sector+58.4%
S&P 500+45.3%
Outperformed by13.0 pp
beat the S&P in 5 of 5
Sector+70.8%
S&P 500+59.7%
Outperformed by11.1 pp
beat the S&P in 5 of 5
Show each episode (real returns)
EpisodeNext 12mNext 24mNext 36m
SectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500Gap
2009-033y vs SPY then -11%+73.2%+50.1%+23.2 pp+113.0%+73.5%+39.6 pp+116.3%+88.1%+28.2 pp
2011-083y vs SPY then -3%+14.7%+17.9%-3.3 pp+42.1%+39.8%+2.4 pp+77.6%+74.8%+2.8 pp
2013-043y vs SPY then -5%+30.4%+20.3%+10.1 pp+39.5%+35.8%+3.7 pp+43.9%+37.3%+6.6 pp
2016-013y vs SPY then -4%+29.6%+20.0%+9.7 pp+66.2%+51.5%+14.7 pp+52.5%+47.9%+4.6 pp
2020-063y vs SPY then -21%+51.2%+40.9%+10.3 pp+30.9%+25.9%+4.9 pp+63.7%+50.4%+13.3 pp
Consumer StaplesXLP · Underperformance (3y ≤10th pctl, drawdown ≤10th pctl)2 past episodes
Sector+11.1%
S&P 500-0.4%
Outperformed by11.6 pp
beat the S&P in 2 of 2
Sector+14.4%
S&P 500+22.5%
Underperformed by8.1 pp
beat the S&P in 1 of 2
Sector+38.7%
S&P 500+51.5%
Underperformed by12.8 pp
beat the S&P in 0 of 2
Show each episode (real returns)
EpisodeNext 12mNext 24mNext 36m
SectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500Gap
2019-023y vs SPY then -24%+9.7%+8.3%+1.3 pp+23.1%+41.7%-18.6 pp+49.3%+64.8%-15.5 pp
2021-113y vs SPY then -22%+12.6%-9.2%+21.8 pp+5.8%+3.3%+2.5 pp+28.1%+38.2%-10.1 pp
UtilitiesXLU · Underperformance (3y ≤10th pctl, drawdown ≤10th pctl)4 past episodes
Sector+7.7%
S&P 500-2.1%
Outperformed by9.7 pp
beat the S&P in 3 of 4
Sector+22.2%
S&P 500+19.5%
Outperformed by2.7 pp
beat the S&P in 2 of 4
Sector+33.9%
S&P 500+41.7%
Underperformed by7.8 pp
beat the S&P in 1 of 4
Show each episode (real returns)
EpisodeNext 12mNext 24mNext 36m
SectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500Gap
2012-023y vs SPY then -21%+11.7%+13.1%-1.4 pp+25.5%+41.8%-16.3 pp+45.3%+63.5%-18.2 pp
2014-093y vs SPY then -24%+6.5%-0.8%+7.3 pp+24.8%+14.4%+10.4 pp+39.6%+35.6%+4.1 pp
2018-013y vs SPY then -22%+11.0%-2.4%+13.4 pp+44.2%+18.5%+25.7 pp+34.6%+38.9%-4.3 pp
2021-123y vs SPY then -25%+1.4%-18.2%+19.6 pp-5.8%+3.2%-9.1 pp+16.1%+28.9%-12.8 pp
MaterialsXLB · Underperformance (3y ≤10th pctl, drawdown ≤10th pctl)2 past episodes
Sector+31.0%
S&P 500+18.6%
Outperformed by12.4 pp
beat the S&P in 2 of 2
Sector+60.6%
S&P 500+47.9%
Outperformed by12.6 pp
beat the S&P in 2 of 2
Sector+51.1%
S&P 500+40.2%
Outperformed by10.9 pp
beat the S&P in 1 of 2
Show each episode (real returns)
EpisodeNext 12mNext 24mNext 36m
SectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500Gap
2016-013y vs SPY then -23%+36.8%+20.0%+16.8 pp+68.7%+51.5%+17.2 pp+45.8%+47.9%-2.0 pp
2020-013y vs SPY then -21%+25.3%+17.2%+8.1 pp+52.5%+44.4%+8.1 pp+56.4%+32.5%+23.8 pp
Real EstateXLRE · Underperformance (drawdown ≤10th pctl)1 past episodeno episode old enough yetno episode old enough yetno episode old enough yet
Show each episode (real returns)
EpisodeNext 12mNext 24mNext 36m
SectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500GapSectorS&P 500Gap
2026-013y vs SPY then -36%–––––––––

What stands out: over the next 12 months, past bottom-decile episodes usually saw a relief rally against SPY (Staples, Utilities, Health Care, Materials and Consumer Discretionary all beat SPY in most 12-month windows). Over 36 months the record is mixed. Staples, Health Care and Utilities mostly kept lagging, largely because the 2010s–2020s were one long mega-cap growth market. So being deeply out of favour has historically been a better signal for a 1-year rebound than for a lasting 3-year reversal.

Method: weight is estimated from the ratio of each Select Sector SPDR ETF's price to SPY's price, calibrated to the real published S&P 500 sector weights as of 2026-09 (State Street / SSGA). It is not the true historical weight series — index reconstitutions, buybacks, and (for Real Estate and Communication Services) sector redefinitions in 2016 and 2018 mean it drifts from reality over long periods. Percentiles are point-in-time (expanding window, no lookahead). Forward-return stats above compare small samples of historical episodes and are not a forecast. Underperformance section: uses Yahoo Finance dividend-adjusted monthly closes (total return) for SPY and the Select Sector SPDRs; relative 3y = (1+sector 3y return)/(1+SPY 3y return) − 1. See README.md for the full methodology and how to refresh this data.

Stock Screener — 8 Most Dislocated Sectors

Data as of 2026-09-03 / 2026-09-28 (see dataAsOf per stock) · 235 stocks · Technology, Financials, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Materials, Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care

Top ETF-weight holdings of the 8 S&P 500 sectors currently most dislocated vs. their own history on at least one lens (see the Sector Dislocation tab). The Lens column shows which: Weight (sector weight at an extreme percentile), Performance (3-year relative performance at ≤10th percentile; Consumer Discretionary and Health Care were added on this lens), or Both. Built for a contrarian screen: filter for a high Quality Score and a deep discount to all-time high, or an earnings-recovery candidate, to find "grey cloud" businesses the market has temporarily marked down.

TickerSectorLensPrice% Below ATH1Y ReturnP/EP/SP/BP/FCFDiv YieldEPS Gr 1YEPS CAGRROIC Avg/MinROENorm. P/EShort % FloatQuality Score

↻ = earnings recovery candidate (trailing EPS well below its normalized level, with the forward estimate already pointing back up). Click any column header to sort.